For all experiments, Results Neural Differentiation of MSChUCB acidic protein were generally up-regulated in MSChUCBFebruary Differentiation Cord Blood MSC cells

April 10, 2017

spirational target of providing prophylaxis for contacts of 103 cases per day, on the assumption that around 10 contacts per case receive prophylaxis. The constraint on treatment delivery was also 104 doses per day, but this value is less significant since treatment has minimal effect on transmission in this model. In addition, a vaccine was introduced to the population at a rate of 0:75 million doses per week, with seroconversion in 70% of recipients starting 20 weeks into the epidemic. The vaccine did not provide perfect protection against the pandemic strain but reduced susceptibility by 70%, which is similar to existing estimates of vaccine efficacy against susceptibility. Results With the extended SEIR model presented here, several experiments were undertaken to identify: the diagnostic strategies that have the greatest impact; how the impact of using POCT s is affected by their sensitivity; and how the logistical constraints identified in this paper affect the impact of the strategies employed. Impact of Diagnosis Strategies The impact of any intervention is determined in part by the proportion of infected persons that present. Since severity is assumed to be the driver for mild presentations, the impact of each diagnosis strategy increases as the severity of the epidemic 3131684 increases. As shown in 4 February 2011 | Volume 6 | Issue 2 | e14505 Epidemic scenario Epidemic scenarios were randomly chosen from predefined distributions for each of the model parameters; these distributions are presented in Supplementary Material S1, S2.2. In brief, we assumed a basic reproductive number of R0 &1:4 in a fully susceptible population, where treatment had minimal effect on Antiviral Interventions a larger peak at low attack rates. This inverse relationship between the size of the two peaks demonstrates that our measure of impact is valid. Even where the epidemic is not successfully curtailed by immunisation, use of antivirals to constrain transmission may slow the rate of epidemic growth. Delays of several weeks to the time of median infection are observed when the severity is high. 5 February 2011 | Volume 2187993 6 | Issue 2 | e14505 Antiviral Interventions Sensitivity to Delivery Constraints and Diagnostic Capacity syndromic strategy, while a capacity of 2|104 is needed to achieve maximal impact using the PCRstrategy. This four-fold difference in diagnostic capacities demonstrates that once a high proportion of ILI presentations are infected with the pandemic strain, syndromic diagnosis is more effective than using PCRtests, within the logistical constraints identified here. From this analysis, one may infer that the optimal combination of capacities is such that the diagnostic capacity is sufficient to saturate–but not overload–the prophylaxis delivery capacity. Assuming that incidence of the pandemic strain peaks at 65% of ILI, the optimal strategy is to continue with PCRtests until the available lab capacity is only 65% of the daily number of samples, then switching to syndromic diagnosis. Such a strategy requires instant surveillance data and that PCRlab capacity is devoted solely to testing the samples delivered that day, ignoring any SCD-inhibitor biological activity backlog of samples from previous days–both assumptions are highly unrealistic. Furthermore, a few days would elapse between the saturation of PCRlab capacity and this optimal switching time. Meanwhile, the combined PCR/syndromic strategy has very similar impact and is also realistically achievable. This model as